My Gut Feeling: Kamala Will Win!

I really think Kamala Harris will win the 2024 election, never mind what the polls say! Forget the darn polls! We saw how wildly inaccurate they were in 2016 and 2020. 

The Magic Word is Turnout!

It’s all about turnout: come Election Day, how many people will show up to vote? Will they take the trouble to get off the sofa, get dressed, go out, and vote? There are many who just couldn’t be bothered, including left wing people I know.

This country doesn’t make it easy to do one’s civic duty. Voting is not mandatory. Voting day is not a holiday nor are employers required to give workers time off to vote — at least not in every state, not yet! How many working people — who take care of  parents, children, and grandchildren — want to spend a day’s paid leave casting a ballot? It’s a tough call! 

Early voting is key. (I already did, by mail ballot). So far, early voter turnout has been good in most states. In general, those who vote early are Democrats while Republicans prefer to wait until Election Day. What matters is getting voters mobilized and in polling booths, especially in the swing states. (1)

According to a Stanford University study, democracies perform better when more people vote. About 240 million people were eligible to vote in the 2020 presidential election but only 66.1 percent of them submitted ballots. Roughly 81 million eligible voters did not cast a ballot. That’s a lot of people for the two campaigns to reach before Election Day!  

Ballin’ and Stallin’ (2)

I heard an analyst on MSNBC use sports terms to describe Harris and Trump: “she’s ballin’ and he’s stallin’” — he meant Harris was engaging with voters every chance she got while Trump was cancelling major media interviews. 

Harris went on a Black talk show, “Charlamagne tha God” to shore up the Black youth vote because, apparently, young Black men prefer not to see women in leadership roles! She defended her “scripted” cautious style as a badge of honor and agreed that Trump was all about fascism.

Harris also went on Fox News to win over the sliver of Republican (mostly women) voters who watch Fox but dislike Trump. Despite the antagonistic interview, Harris can tout the fact that she went into a hostile environment and took hard questions, while Trump is stallin’ — that is, he avoids debates and tough interviews; he ducks, he weaves, he stalls!  

Conspiracy Theories!

No big events are likely to shake up the race in these last few days before November 5. Of course, conspiracy theories abound and will no doubt get more extreme!  

After the Harris-Trump debate (September 10), right-wing commenters — unable to accept Trump’s disastrous performance vis-à-vis Harris’ forceful one — chose to attack her pearl earrings! Naomi Wolf (former liberal feminist, now a rightwing conspiracy theorist) said the earrings were transmitting audio in real time; that is, back room operatives were feeding Harris answers through the earrings! Other critics speculated they were expensive Tiffany pearls — insinuating that wearing fine jewelry made Harris

ineligible for high office!  

The Dems have launched a TV ad calling Trump unhinged, unstable and unchecked; someone who will “ignore all checks that rein in a president’s power.”  They are linking his erratic behavior and bizarre comments with questions about his mental capacity and refusal to release recent medical records. By calling January 6 “a day of love” at a recent Univision town hall, Trump was “gaslighting” the American people, Harris said.

In the final days before the election, a last-ditch effort is underway to peel off Republican support from Trump. Harris rallied with prominent GOP supporters in battleground Pennsylvania, telling them “there is a place for you in this campaign.”

Strong Feeling!

I have faith that the majority in America is about democracy and decency, never mind all the MAGA trash talk of rounding up and deporting immigrants or refusing to accept another person of color in the Oval! 

There’s no October Surprise (3) coming our way! Yes, a full-fledged war could break out between Israel and Iran or some other country in the Middie East! But, whatever happens, it’s unlikely to change the outcome of the election. Kamala will win but what happens afterwards? The other side has promised chaos. 

Despite Trump’s threats of violence or of unleashing his neo Nazi goons, this sometimes tottering off-kilter Republic will right itself, I strongly feel! Meanwhile, if you live in a battleground state (or basically anywhere) take a leaf from a survivalist guide and start stocking up on canned goods, packaged food, fuel, flashlights, shortwave radio, and bottled water; don’t forget cash! I’m only half kidding!

Ludi Joseph

Washington, D.C.

October 20, 2020

(1) A swing state (also known as a battleground or purple state) could be won by either side — by a “swing” in votes. In 2024, the swing states are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. 

(2) Ballin’ or Balling is slang for playing basketball in ghetto neighborhoods. Stallin’ or Stalling comes from wrestling. 

(3) An October Surprise is an event that takes place in October that might influence the outcome of a presidential election. One of the best known examples is from 1980 when the Ronald Reagan campaign tried to ensure that President Jimmy Carter would not benefit from the pre-election release of U.S. hostages held by Iran. 

Voting Sticker 

Remembering Chau — Sid Chaudhuri

My earliest memories of former classmate Sid Chaudhuri — who passed away in Perth, Australia, July 4 — are from our time at Delhi’s Frank Anthony Public School (FAPS). He joined in the 6th or 7th Standard; my sister Lorna and I joined in the 4th. I’m not sure if he had a nickname then but in later years we knew him as “Chau.” Before FAPS,  he was proud to have studied at La Martinière in Lucknow — a snobby school for the hoi polloi, as I often pointed out to him! 

The Chaudhuri family lived in Greater Kailash. His dad worked at Indian Airlines. Chau had siblings: a younger brother, Deepak, who (like Chau) also joined the Indian Air Force but tragically passed in an air crash several decades ago. He had two sisters, one in the U.S. and another in India. 

FAPS

Chau always stayed in touch; it was one of his best traits! He made sure he kept tabs on nearly everyone we knew at high school. It was through Chau that we reconnected with FAPS classmates, Vinod Bhargava and Shyam Venkatesan, in New York about 10 years ago which ultimately led to our batch having its “grand reunion” in Delhi in 2016 — so we have Chau to thank for that, although he himself couldn’t attend because of ill health.

I appreciated that Chau was familiar with (and respectful of) historic FAPS lore about visits to school by then India-based teen idol pop singer-sensations, Tony Brent (“Dark Moon,” “In My Little Room”) and Cliff Richard (“Outsider,” “The Young Ones”) — both major names in Indian radio broadcasting before they hit the international big time! Tony passed away in Oz some 30 years ago; Cliff, in his 80s, is still making music in England! 

Agra

Chau was based in Agra for several years while working as a navigator for the Indian Air Force. Lorna and I have fond memories of visits, organized by him, to view the Taj Mahal in all its glory during full moon nights! 

In Delhi, in the late 1980s, he joined some of my India Gate after-hours “allu-paratha” picnics where we ate delish potato-stuffed wheat pancakes! Friends would gather on the lawns, play raucous games, and then buy up all the cassata ice cream from vendors!  

Noir Humor!

When Chau first came Stateside in the late 1990s — having retired early from the IAF as squadron leader — he lived in Florida for a few years before moving to NY-NJ.  Lorna and I met him at Fort Lauderdale and Orlando. It was then that he taught at a civil aviation school in Florida — years later, I used to kid him that it was the same school where 9/11 hijacker Mohd. Atta infamously trained to fly a plane — but not land it! 

Chau visited us frequently in New York where he worked (mostly) as a project manager in the IT, engineering, and construction industries. At one point he tried his hand as a professional blackjack player in Atlantic City — no kidding! I saw him in “full player mode” at a Las Vegas casino — his wife Mangal and my Mum Evelyn were also present. But he soon abandoned full time gaming!

Doing the Waltz!

He was personable and articulate and surprisingly adept at ballroom dancing, a legacy from his NDA (National Defense Academy) training, he said — although partner dancing was (and still is) a fairly unique and sought after skill! When the European Union office (where I worked) first opened at the Taj Palace Hotel in Delhi, Chau came to a party and we did the waltz and some rumba (he called it the box step!) — to enthusiastic applause from EU staff and hotel guests!  Nice memory! 

In the late 2000s, he moved to Oz and settled in Perth. He would ring me on What’s App — the last time was in January this year when I told him about the sad passing of former FAPS head boy, Deepak Kochhar. When Chau heard that several class mates were going to a school reunion at Port Blair in the Andaman Islands (January 2024), he was very excited and wanted to join us. 

But by then his health was deteriorating rapidly. He was already living at a care facility as Mangal could not manage his treatment and therapy at home. The PD (Parkinson’s Disease) — he was diagnosed with some years before — had  progressed irreversibly plus there were other medical complications. That was the last time I spoke to Chau. 

Life in Oz

Despite small gigs, he could not get steady employment in Perth which he attributed to a sluggish economy.  There were limited opportunities but they fizzled. Still, he remained upbeat on the phone, never mind whatever else was going on: the dwindling job market, the state of the world, majoritarian politics in India, his own deteriorating health, or his diminishing mobility. 

Chau is survived by his wife Mangal. He was married twice before and had a daughter with his first wife. 

Rest in peace, Chau! You will be remembered!

Ludi Joseph

Washington, DC

Oct. 11, 2024

Credit: Photo from Indian Defense Alumni Directory provided by Col. Vinod Bhargava. 

Sid Chaudhuri - Chau