My Gut Feeling: Kamala Will Win!

I really think Kamala Harris will win the 2024 election, never mind what the polls say! Forget the darn polls! We saw how wildly inaccurate they were in 2016 and 2020. 

The Magic Word is Turnout!

It’s all about turnout: come Election Day, how many people will show up to vote? Will they take the trouble to get off the sofa, get dressed, go out, and vote? There are many who just couldn’t be bothered, including left wing people I know.

This country doesn’t make it easy to do one’s civic duty. Voting is not mandatory. Voting day is not a holiday nor are employers required to give workers time off to vote — at least not in every state, not yet! How many working people — who take care of  parents, children, and grandchildren — want to spend a day’s paid leave casting a ballot? It’s a tough call! 

Early voting is key. (I already did, by mail ballot). So far, early voter turnout has been good in most states. In general, those who vote early are Democrats while Republicans prefer to wait until Election Day. What matters is getting voters mobilized and in polling booths, especially in the swing states. (1)

According to a Stanford University study, democracies perform better when more people vote. About 240 million people were eligible to vote in the 2020 presidential election but only 66.1 percent of them submitted ballots. Roughly 81 million eligible voters did not cast a ballot. That’s a lot of people for the two campaigns to reach before Election Day!  

Ballin’ and Stallin’ (2)

I heard an analyst on MSNBC use sports terms to describe Harris and Trump: “she’s ballin’ and he’s stallin’” — he meant Harris was engaging with voters every chance she got while Trump was cancelling major media interviews. 

Harris went on a Black talk show, “Charlamagne tha God” to shore up the Black youth vote because, apparently, young Black men prefer not to see women in leadership roles! She defended her “scripted” cautious style as a badge of honor and agreed that Trump was all about fascism.

Harris also went on Fox News to win over the sliver of Republican (mostly women) voters who watch Fox but dislike Trump. Despite the antagonistic interview, Harris can tout the fact that she went into a hostile environment and took hard questions, while Trump is stallin’ — that is, he avoids debates and tough interviews; he ducks, he weaves, he stalls!  

Conspiracy Theories!

No big events are likely to shake up the race in these last few days before November 5. Of course, conspiracy theories abound and will no doubt get more extreme!  

After the Harris-Trump debate (September 10), right-wing commenters — unable to accept Trump’s disastrous performance vis-à-vis Harris’ forceful one — chose to attack her pearl earrings! Naomi Wolf (former liberal feminist, now a rightwing conspiracy theorist) said the earrings were transmitting audio in real time; that is, back room operatives were feeding Harris answers through the earrings! Other critics speculated they were expensive Tiffany pearls — insinuating that wearing fine jewelry made Harris

ineligible for high office!  

The Dems have launched a TV ad calling Trump unhinged, unstable and unchecked; someone who will “ignore all checks that rein in a president’s power.”  They are linking his erratic behavior and bizarre comments with questions about his mental capacity and refusal to release recent medical records. By calling January 6 “a day of love” at a recent Univision town hall, Trump was “gaslighting” the American people, Harris said.

In the final days before the election, a last-ditch effort is underway to peel off Republican support from Trump. Harris rallied with prominent GOP supporters in battleground Pennsylvania, telling them “there is a place for you in this campaign.”

Strong Feeling!

I have faith that the majority in America is about democracy and decency, never mind all the MAGA trash talk of rounding up and deporting immigrants or refusing to accept another person of color in the Oval! 

There’s no October Surprise (3) coming our way! Yes, a full-fledged war could break out between Israel and Iran or some other country in the Middie East! But, whatever happens, it’s unlikely to change the outcome of the election. Kamala will win but what happens afterwards? The other side has promised chaos. 

Despite Trump’s threats of violence or of unleashing his neo Nazi goons, this sometimes tottering off-kilter Republic will right itself, I strongly feel! Meanwhile, if you live in a battleground state (or basically anywhere) take a leaf from a survivalist guide and start stocking up on canned goods, packaged food, fuel, flashlights, shortwave radio, and bottled water; don’t forget cash! I’m only half kidding!

Ludi Joseph

Washington, D.C.

October 20, 2020

(1) A swing state (also known as a battleground or purple state) could be won by either side — by a “swing” in votes. In 2024, the swing states are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. 

(2) Ballin’ or Balling is slang for playing basketball in ghetto neighborhoods. Stallin’ or Stalling comes from wrestling. 

(3) An October Surprise is an event that takes place in October that might influence the outcome of a presidential election. One of the best known examples is from 1980 when the Ronald Reagan campaign tried to ensure that President Jimmy Carter would not benefit from the pre-election release of U.S. hostages held by Iran. 

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